- Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged, keeping the interest rate at a historic low level of 0.1%.
- GBP/USD stronger as Bank of England (BoE) set the inflation forecast as 4% for this year.
- Forex trading market participants may buy above $1.3885 to target the $1.3985 on Friday.
A day before, GBP/USD closed at $1.3928 after placing a high of $1.3950 and a low of $1.3872. GBP/USD reversed its course on Thursday despite the strength in the US dollar amid the recent jump of the British Pound against the US dollar. As discussed in my previous forecast GBP/USD Tapering Caution, the GBP/USD price forecast remains neutral as investors await US job data.
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GBP/USD Supported Amid Bank of England Tapering Cautions
The strength of the GBP/USD was driven by the latest comments from the Bank of England, which left the interest rates steady. However, the BoE signaled that the central bank might start tapering its bond purchases soon. It’s because the economy is close to reaching the threshold to begin reducing asset purchases.
The Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The main lending rate of BoE was kept on hold at a historic low level of 0.1%, where the rate has been since March 2020. Policymakers also voted 7-1 to maintain the QE program at $1.25 trillion.
The Bank of England also increased its inflation forecast as it recorded at an above-forecast level for two consecutive months. The economic recovery of Britain from the pandemic has accelerated at a higher pace. Therefore, the Bank of England (BoE) set the inflation forecast as 4% for this year. This forecast raised the expectations that the central bank would raise interest rates next year to keep the rising prices in check.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey Remarks on QE Tapering
The BoE (Bank of England) Governor, Andrew Bailey, said that the BoE was not addicted to quantitative easing. These comments came in response to a report published in July by the House of Lords economic affairs committee. They questioned whether the Central Bank of England had an addiction to QE.
He replied, the House of Lords should not use the word “addicted” and said that the bank had been clearing its position among the public for the past 18 months. Over the debate of the QE program, he said, there was no need for a question like this.
The central bank’s statement from the meeting and the comments from Bailey added strength to the British Pound against the US dollar. It kept GBP/USD pair higher on board.
The US dollar was also green for the day, but the gains were almost flat as the macroeconomic data from the US side came in line with the expectations and had a neutral effect on the currency.
On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Construction PMI dropped in July against the forecasted 64.5. It weighed on the British Pound that further capped gains in GBP/USD. From the US side, at 16:30 GMT, the Challenger Job Cuts in July came in as -92.8% against the previous -88.0%.
At 17:30 GMT, Unemployment Claims from last week remained flat with the projections of 385K. From June, the Trade Balance declined to -75.7B against the predicted -74.2B and weighed on the US dollar that pushed GBP/USD further higher.
GBP/USD Price Forecast – Daily Support and Resistance
Pivot Point: 1.3916
GBP/USD Price Forecast – Technical Analysis: Major Support at 1.3875
GBP/USD price forecast remains neutral above the 1.3875 level as traders are staying out of the market ahead of US job data. On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD formed a double bottom pattern that is still supporting it at the 1.3785 level. At the same level, the upward channel is also extending supporting, boosting chances of a bullish trend in GBP/USD.
Most of the technical levels are the same as yesterday, therefore, GBP/USD may face immediate resistance at 1.3950 and 1.3985 levels. However, the formation of descending triangle pattern is a growing concern of a bearish breakout.
The 50 days EMA (exponential moving average – red line) will be extending an immediate hurdle at the 1.3930 level. Bullish crossover above 50 EMA can drive the GBP/USD price towards 1.3985.
The stochastic RSI indicator has crossed over 50, and now it’s demonstrating a bullish trend in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, the Forex trading market participants may buy above $1.3885 to target the $1.3985 on Friday. Conversely, sell-stop can be placed below the $1.3860 level to target 1.3800 and 1.3737 today. All the best!
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